Interest rates are very important for the economy as well as the businesses. No matter what business you do, interest rate changes can have an impact on your business. No matter what you trade-stocks, forex, futures, commodities, ETFs, options, bonds or anything else, you need to keep an eye on the interest rate changes. Now, there is not one interest rate in the economy. There are many. Some are short term while others are long term. A Yield Curve helps you understand the changes in the different interest rates in the economy!
You will come across three types of shapes on the yield curve. The normal curve rises to the right and the short term interests are lower than the longer term interests. A normal yield curve represents normal economic activity where investors are being rewarded more for investing in longer term securities with a premium on longer term interest rates.
Now, most of the time you will come accross the Normal Yield Curve. But sometimes, you will find the Yield Curve to be Flat. When you find the Yield Curve to be Flat, it means that all the interest rates in the economy are equal. What this indicates is that economic activity is slowing down.
However, when the economy starts to go into a recession, you will suddenly find an Inverted Yield Curve. On an Inverted Yield Curve, the longer term interest rates are lower than the short term interest rates.What this mean is that the economy is slowing down and investors are reluctant to invest long term thinking it to be risky. An Inverted Yield Curve is a leading indicator of an economy doing down into a recession. When there is a financial crisis like that happened in the early part of 2008, you will find the Yield Curve to be Inverted. Investors are shying away from investing in long term projects in the economy.
Eurodollars have a highly liquid market meaning you can get in and get out without paying a large spread due to the large market in them. They also have less volatility. However, you can also trade the 10 year Treasury Notes (T Notes) and the Treasury Bonds (T Bond) that have a maturity period of higher than 10 years. However, T Notes and T Bonds have a much higher volatility as compared to Eurodollars.You can also trade options on these interest rate futures contracts. Some people trade the volatility. So, you have to know what you want before you trade these instruments! Many investors and traders trade interest rates by investing in Eurodollars. Eurodollars are short term futures contracts that have a low margin requirement meaning retail traders and investors can also trade Eurodollars.
Trading interest rate futures is no different than trading other futures contracts. When you trade interest rate futures, you need to pick your entry and exit points carefully including the worst case scenario that might include taking a margin call. You also need to keep in mind what the economic calendar has in store for you for that day.
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